The year 2021 marked the liquidation of consensus opposition in Russia. The “consensus” or “decorative” opposition arose by default and existed only in the boundaries that was satisfactory for Kremlin. Under the influence of selective repression, the consensus opposition ceased its activities, and there was no other opposition emerging during the years of Putinism.
In the current political situation, the overwhelming majority of the “opposition actors” were unable to implement their historical and political role in Russian politics. To implement this role, it would be necessary to form and show the picture of the future to the peoples of Russia.
All sorts of speculations about the better future for Russia with or without Putin, make no sense. The future of Russia will worsen in all the areas due to Putin’s criminal policies and organized by him criminal groups. Now that future looks glim not only for Russia itself, but also beyond its internationally recognized borders.
The truth is: Peoples of Russia have no image of the future. We need to take an active part in creating the future. This is where we need to divert the efforts of all displeased by Putinism. Putinism not only seized and completely usurp the power in the internationally recognized borders of Russia and the territories temporarily occupied by Russia, but Putinism managed to deeply envelop into the Western structures and institutions.
For a real struggle against this criminal evil, it is necessary to create a single Anti-Putin front, worldwide and not- ideological. The front in which everyone, as its strength and opportunities, will take its place.
Why Putin and his “gang” should be inevitably convicted, even posthumously?
With a high probability, Putin will be physically eliminated by his nearest surrounding, exactly at the time, when he becomes completely incapable to imitate the functions of the country’s leader, even symbolically. With a high probability, this event may occur before 2024.
However, with the physical departure of Putin, his «long state» will remain. Power will remain in the hands of KGB-FSB, other security officials and organized criminal groups. Instead of Putin, his «colleagues» from the FSB will easily merge with the power of the next leader. This conditional and most real new “Ivan Juntavsky” may behave even more like a head of the organised crime in Russia and beyond.
For there are no other applicants for the leader’s post with a relatively human face. This applicant may not be in for at least next 22 years, due to the Putin’s “negative selection” in his administrative.
Using this precedent created by Putin, his current criminal system and the Russian largest in the world agent’s system, “Ivan Juntavsky”, will inevitably continue same external and domestic politics copying Vladimir Putin.
This new leadership may be uglier, more criminal and emerge in more socially dangerous forms than Putin’s. Already, there are millions of victims of Putinism. The victims of Putin’s crimes and their loved ones require deserved punishment. We need to succeed in the punishment of this evil.
How should it happen?
The main strategy of the future should be not repeating of the past.
The conviction is the only tool to stop crimes from being committed, to prevent them in the future, both in terms of the quantity and gravity of the consequences. Without the name and shame of those responsible and their punishment. Without this process it would be impossible not only to conduct reforms, but also to return to a normal peaceful life.
The overcoming the past is the known policy of new democratic states. To move on, the people need to overcome the perception by the population of their past.
Most often, the requirements of serious revision of the past proceed from groups that were in opposition before the crash of the old regime and continuing to seek a consistent abandonment of old institutions and traditions after the fall of the dictatorship.
Among the main points of such requirements are the rehabilitation of victims, the opening of the historical truth, the identification and punishment of the responsible.
After departure of Putin and his criminal neo-fascist regime, inevitably should begin a trial of the former military-political leadership of Russia.
The post-Soviet countries, who did not join NATO, Europe and European civilization are overwhelmed with military crimes and crimes against humanity. This is the main problem of the post-Soviets.
Now, with a high probability, it becomes more and more apparent that Russia’s disintegration will be bloodier than the collapse of the USSR. At least because now the level of militarization, the neo-fascist existence of society and chauvinism in Russia are significantly higher than it was in the USSR. Therefore, the following steps would be necessary.
After Putin’s departure and collapse of Russia in the post-Russian territory of influence, a transitional period of at least 5 years should occur.
The UN should step in with the solutions. Temporary international transitional administration and transient justice should be established in the post-Russian space.
To avoid recurrence of the geopolitical expansionism of Moscow, during the formation of the statehood of new post-Russian states, to resolve possible territorial disputes between them peacefully and ensure the denuclearization of the post-Russian space, in all the post-Russian-influence territory, it is necessary to establish temporary international external management. Not mythical external management that the Kremlin technologies of information and psychological exposure scare Russians, but the real one.
Russia will disappear as a state and geopolitical reality, but numerous especially grave crimes committed by its citizens will not disappear. According to the international criminal law, they do not apply to the statutes of limitations allocated to criminalize. In addition, the transitional period may be extended by Russian laws, which also need to be involved in the strict criminal responsibility of Russian criminals.
In addition to Putin, his nearest and furthest entourage, at least two million Russian military and state criminals should be convicted.
The main problem of post-Soviet and Russian space is the total impunity of millions of military and government criminals, serious criminals.
So far, unless we will eliminate the total impunity in the post-Russian space, the conduct of any reforms in general, is not possible.
In post-Russian countries staff members of the former Ministry of the Interior, the Committee of State Security (Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation), the Federal Service for Punishments, the Investigative Committee, military personnel who have participated in criminal Putin wars who have committed other crimes must be subject to lustration.
After making a conviction of Putin and his gang, as well as all sorts of military and state criminals, it is necessary to recognize in court, that All-Russian Emergency Commission to Combat Council and Sabotage, Political Administration of the USSR, State Security Committee of the USSR, and The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, are in fact terrorist organizations.
Together with this, legally, in court, we must condemn the coup in 1917 (The Russian Revolution). It will be necessary to recognize the Soviet occupation — a particularly severe crimes of Bolsheviks. In the countries where Russian was severe, which is all post-Russian space, it is necessary to carry out total de-Putinization, de-Communization and de-Imperialization. It is necessary to recognize the criminal ideology of Russian imperialism. The Russian Empire should be called into account.
The so-called 400-year-old «gathering of Russian land» must be condemned and named as they are: the occupation of other people and territories, enslavement, and ethnocide of their indigenous peoples.
It is necessary to give freedom to the indigenous peoples of Russia, the ability to realize their right to self-determination, which was not there for at least 400 years, after their enslavement.
The Truth Commission for the Firmer Future
It is already necessary to create truth commissions to document the evidence of Putin’s crimes and its regime.
It should be carried out as an example, the activities of the Soviet authorities to document the crimes of the German fascist invaders during the Second World War.
On the 2 November 1942, in the phase of the active offensive of Germany and its allies to the Soviet Union, when there was no clarity in the outcome of the Second World War, the Decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR was formed by an Emergency State Commission on establishing and investigating the atrocities of the German fascist invaders.
The Commission was granted the right to instruct the proper bodies to investigate, interrogate the victims, collect testimony and other documentary data relating to the criminal actions of the occupiers and their accomplices in the territory of the USSR. Acts and communications of the Emergency State Commission has become one of the most important pieces of evidence of the accusation during Nuremberg Process.
Pay attention to the speed of the creation of the International Military Tribunal and the indictment of military criminals.
The World War II was ended on the 8 May 1945. On the 8 August 1945, the International Military Tribunal was established in Nuremberg. On 1 October 1946, the leadership of the 3rd Reich was convicted. As they say, the one and a half years after the end of the war passed, and some of the main war criminals received their worthy condemnation.
The Truth Commissions must be created outside of Russia, to be out of the zone of reach of representatives of the criminal Putin regime and their numerous agents.
Staying in the apparatus of Putin regime, security officials and officials can cooperate with the truth commissions on a confidential basis.
What do we have to do?
There is a historic example. At the beginning of the 20th century, known figure of Russian Revolution Vladimir Lenin was in every way not only calling on defeat of the Russian Empire in the 1st World War, but also contributed to its defeat.
Although in our opinion, V. Lenin, is a particularly heavy criminal, but his thesis published by him in the article entitled «On the defeat of his government in the Imperialist War» («Social Democrat» No. 43, July 26, 1915), somewhat Relevant for all the opponents of Putin’s regime.
The article of Vladimir Lenin begins. «The revolutionary class in the reaction war cannot not to desire defeat to their government. This is an axiom. And only conscious supporters or helpless servants of Social Chauvinists would challenge this. «Therefore, we can consider it an axiom, that Putin’s regime will be eliminated only after its existential defeat in the 4th World Hybrid War.
It is important to understand that simulative feeding with imperiousness “Russian Empire Restoration”, partly weakens the management mechanism of the state.
In addition, by the calculations made in 2021, Russian demographic potential is in the worst situation since the end of the 2nd World War.
Under the influence of many external and internal factors, the Russian society is in a state of low Passionarity, the external military aggression of Kremlin against Ukraine will strengthen the decay stage of Russia. This is physics.
There are “Three Whales of Putin’s regime”: indifference of most of the population, the fear of its representatives and violence against people.
We need to stock up the tactful patience and wait for the defeat of the Russian Reich in the Fourth World Hybrid War. And as far as possible, in every way to contribute to this defeat, but preferably without prejudice to personal safety and own interests.
It is necessary to begin a wide public discussion about the future. Particularly in the republics that are still formally included into Russian Federation. For instance, what should be the foreign policy rate of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Kalmykia, or Yakutia?
Therefore, it is already necessary to fully support national trends in these republics and teach their inhabitants how to build their statehood (at least in theory).
Russian’s sub-million nations should strive to take power in their hands immediately after the fall of Putin’s regime and declare independence of their republics. At the same time, it is important not to succumb to Putin-Soviet provocations. The classic once is to quarrel different nationalities and arrange a massacre in the boundaries of the newly formed states.
Every new nation needs its own Navalny!
The political struggle of Alexey Navalny and his supporters for power, their methods, and it is a bit of a paradox, are partly weakening, but also somewhat strengthens the Putin regime. This is a kind of running on the spot situation. In Mordor (as we now call Putin’s Russia), the struggle against their illegitimate law does not contribute to the real coming to power. And for Putin’s regime, it is largely safe and harmless. Therefore, some people have an impression of some arrangements between Putin’s entourage and Navalny.
We need to understand that practice that was established by the Russian (Soviet) imperial traditions. A leader of the state never passed power to another leader voluntarily, or because of elections, or other established procedures. Such anomalies, as a renunciation from the throne of Nikolai second and the transfer of power from Yeltsin to Putin, we do not use as examples (not the case!). Now it is important to divert the fight against Russian regime inside Russia and beyond towards the National Interests of the republics. At the time of a significant weakening of Putinism, in the struggle for the independence of its countries, new leaders should be born (new «National Navalny»). Moreover, I mean the national leaders.
The coming year 2022 should be the year of the beginning of the Renaissance statehood of future sovereign countries of the post-Russian space.
The steps to the victory inside Russia
It is necessary to proceed with the fact that the deputies of the last three conveners of the Russian State Duma are illegal. In fact, nobody elected them. Representatives of the Putin regime were led to power due to the systematic rejection of the elected by people representatives. Other factors are the misinformation or implementation of information and psychological operations, negative administrative selection, bribing and blackmail. Consequently, they are not expressive to the will of the peoples of Russia.
Laws made by de facto non-elected deputies who do not represent the public cannot be generally binding to comply with not only the public, but also by the authorities. In addition, the representatives of Putin regime themselves have not bother to comply with their illegitimate laws.
Therefore, it is necessary for all the citizens of Russia, including representatives of the authorities, to begin the mass-sabotage of the execution of these «laws». Quiet, default, where it seems possible, do not fulfil these illegitimate laws. The digital GULAG created on behalf of Putin, is not that perfect to fully control each individual and each policeman.
The total sabotage of the execution of illegitimate Putin’s laws is one of the forms of non-violent resistance to Putin’s criminal new-fascist regime in Russia.
At the same time, Russian journalists, lawyers, law officials and security forces should begin documentation of the crimes of Putin regime.
Most Russian security forces and officials are the most valuable witnesses of Putin state crimes. But it is necessary to collect all the evidence secretly in strict confidence.
The weak side of it is that we can win this war, relying only on the law. The powerful do not have rights, they have the agreements.
In any case, one needs to act very rigidly and decisively on the principle an eye for an eye a tooth for a tooth.
The Condemnation of Russian Imperialism
In the current political situation, the picture of the future of Russia should consist of liberating the current Russian regions from the Dictate of Moscow.
The picture of the future should clearly show to indigenous peoples, which profit they will have after Putin’s departure and how their republics will look like after Lawful State will be established there.
The image of the future: the destruction of the evil empire in the consciousness of the indigenous peoples of modern Russia.
This should be the main idea and common ideology.
The republics that are part of Russia have their own constitutions, flags, coat of arms, hymns and other attributes of their statehood. The rights of the indigenous peoples of Russia are formally protected by the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (adopted by General Assembly resolution 61/295 of September 13, 2007). Nominally and formally, the republics that are part of the current Russia, this state. But in which actual condition are these states.
These states are in the state of the temporary occupation of Moscow. In 2014, after the occupation of the Crimea, from the moment that Moscow at the federal legislative level banned calls for the exit of regions from the composition of Russia under the threat of criminal penalties, thereby confirmed its occupying essence.
But there is nothing like that of the Russians themselves. In Russia, the Russians do not have its own national republic, their attributes of statehood: constitution, flag, coat of arms and anthem. These attributes of statehood are available from Russia, but Russia is a multinational state, which follows from the preamble to the Constitution of Russia, and not the state of Russians. This is a federal legal state with the republican form of government (Art. 1 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation). In essence, Russia is a superstructure over the republics and regions in its composition.
Before the collapse of the USSR, there was such a concept as the «Soviet people», which also, as in modern Russia, did not have their allied republic. After the collapse of the USSR, the concept of «Soviet people» disappeared.
Putin and his team built the vertical of their power regime on the traditional authoritarian basis for Russia.
Putin Russia is a fragment that remains from its predecessors: the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union and their existential heir. This is an empire. This Evil Empire is regardless of whether it existed in any way: Russian or Soviet, religious or atheistic. The form does not change its external and largely inner essence. And the value «Soviet» is equivalent to the value of «Russian».
Once Russia fails its existential defeat in the Fourth World Hybrid War, in many respects, as well as the USSR suffered its existential defeat in the Third World Cold War, the value «Russians» may disappear as well as value «Soviet» disappeared. With a high probability, the Russians will call themselves Moscow or Muscovites.
After all, the Russian Empire, the former USSR, and the current Russia is the heirs of the Golden Horde, close in their spirit of the metropolis hostile to free nations. These are the people’s prisons, and their history, starting with the early imperialist concrete wars under the legend of the «Gathering of Russian land» to the «There is border of Russia «from the fight against its own population, the forces of Oprichnina, Tsarist Security, the People’s Commissariat of the USSR, Committee State Security of the USSR to the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation.
The heirs of the Golden Horde — Russia — formed as a colony to seize other people’s territories. Like a giant ladder, like a cosmic black hole, historically Russia remains and exists due to the relentless desire to expand the territorial sphere of its occupying influence, the retention of the already captured and seizure of new territories, enslavement and operation of colonized peoples.
This is a natural way to exist in Russia. Another, peaceful way to Russia cannot exist. War and the constant territorial expansion of other people’s territories, for Russia, is a genuine existential of its historical being. Apart from the seizure of territories of other people and peoples, Russia does not know how to do anything else. It was on this genuine existentiality that Putinism is based on, it’s banking on it and continue its banquet. This is the base of the «Longitude of Putin’s state».
More than 400 years of the Russian imperial tradition and the associated policy of destroying the national identity and the national identity of the occupied peoples (ethnocide), deprived Russians of the possibilities for the formation of democratic traditions.
Russia is an example of how not to live. Russia and democracy are incompatible. The four centuries of Russian existence on the blood and suffering of the conquered peoples. Evil Empire cannot be liberal.
In Russia, instead of the rule of law, there is the right of force. However, it is possible to restore the legal regime in the post-Russian space because of the activities of the temporary transitional international administration and transitional justice.
And Ukraine in this regard is to show a positive result of building their statehood, conducting effective reforms and real economic growth. All this needs to be done so that the peoples of Russia have seen economic success, adopted for themselves positive experience in building statehood.
After all, the key to the dismantling this incomplete empire, the historical, existential enemy of the Ukrainian state is in the hands of Ukraine itself.
Yurii SHULIPA, director of the International Association «Institute of National Politics», lawyer, political expert
Translated by Vera HORTON